Bulgarian election; Socialists, Nationalist and Turks vs. Russian, Turkish and Populist influences

In Bulgaria a snap parliamentary election sees the centre-right GERB party challenged by the socialist BSP. The election was triggered by Rumen Radev’s winning presidential bid last November, seeing a Socialist-backed candidate hold the office of president.
The thrid election in four years shows the fragility of the standing coalition and indicates
the probable fragility of the upcoming coalition.

Current Polling projections
Polls suggest that the former Prime Minister Boiko Borisov’s conservatives are narrowly ahead. Polls have put the centre-right GERB party of Borissov neck-and-neck with the Socialist Party (BSP) on between 25% and 31%. Yet the deciding factor seems to
be the Nationalist party, the United Patriots, whom in an effort to swat the ballot, blocked the Bulgaria-Turkey border and threatened to stop Turkish Bulgarians from voting. When asked about Turkey, party representative Borisov said:

“If Bulgarians decide that we should govern, we will have the chance to talk a lot about Turkey in the coming days. Many things have to be done be Europe and by Turkey to maintain peace and security.”

In response, former Prime Minister Borisov distanced himself from these actions stating that “these actions are disastrous for Bulgaria.”

 

The Rise of the Socialist BSP

On the left, Chief of the Socialists, Kornelia Nonova has promised closed ties with Russia, risking friction with the countries European Union partners. When asked for her main concerns she said:

“I voted for change, security at the borders and in our homes, and for justice. Education for every child, access to healthcare for every person in need, it will be easier for small- and medium-sized businesses. There will be more employed people with higher incomes.”

These promises, echoed throughout populist movements in the West, may prove difficult to provide in Europe’s poorest country.Yet the shift to the left seems indicative of the country shifting further towards Russia and away from the European Union. A possible
outcome that is reflected in the BSPs leader Ninova lashing out against Brussels, saying she is not content with Bulgaria being a “second-class member” of the EU and her intention to veto an extension of sanctions on Russia. In light of this shift to the left,
Merkel’s statements yesterday in Rome, seem particularly insensitive toward rising discontention with Brussels in the east.
Russian Influence
Speaking to national television on the 23d of March, Ninova identified the BSP’s closest allies as the United Patriots, a new anti-immigration, anti-Muslim grouping that includes the ultra nationalist Ataka party. This alliance of the twe extremes of the political spectrum seems indicative of the level of friction with the Brussels parliament. When asked, political scientist Antony Galabov’s views outline the level of risk of a Bulgaria shifting towards Putin:

“No one thinks Bulgaria is about to leave the EU or NATO, but it risks becoming a representative for outside views and to become a Trojan Horse within these organisations.” A view somewhat shared by the more pro-EU Borrisov whom has wanted more “pragmatic” ties with Russia and to revive two joint projects, a nuclear plant and a controversial gas pipeline.
Turkish DOST party
Further making the election complicated is the DOST party (firend in Turkish) which has historically represented ethnic Turks in Bulgaria and focuses on being a movement for rights and freedoms, is for the first time testing its influence in the nationa. Polled at between 8-11% of the votes neither major party wants to work with them as it is widely seen as a party designed by Ankara. Given the current friction between an increasingly undemocratic Erdogan and Europe, this is not likely to change.

 

Bulgaria’s Donald Trump

Yet one other major contender remains to be discussed. Veselin Mareshki, a populist who has bragged about being called the Bulgarian Donald Trump, has presented himself as a political outsider who will change the nations politics so much, ‘your head will spin’.
He owns a chaing of petrol stations and pharmacies and is known for selling medicine and fuel at well below the prices of his competition.

Bulgaria’s Trump has an increased chance thanks to the apathy among Bulgarians for the current political order. Having seen the relative success of other populists in the U.S. (Trump) and Western Europe (Wilders, Le Pen) this apathy is not a factor that can be ignored. Particularly in a nation where the average monthyl income is still just €500 after a decade of EU membership.